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The S&P 500 has rallied nearly 10% in November as improving macroeconomic conditions significantly boosted the market sentiment. At its current level, the index is about 2% short of its 2023 intraday high, and about 6.7% apart from its all-time intraday peak.  

S&P 500 2% Short of 2023 Intraday High

US equities have been on a red-hot winning streak in November, pushing the benchmark S&P 500 above the 4,500 level for the first time in two months.

Since hitting nearly 4,100 in late October, the broader stock market index staged a remarkable rally of roughly 10%, partly propelled by largely positive earnings among Big Tech companies and easing macroeconomic pressures. The S&P 500 is currently sitting at 4,514, just 2.1% short of 4,607 – its intraday high for the year. 

Amidst the November rally, the S&P 500 surged above key resistance levels and is yet to show a sign of a slowdown. The next barrier lies at 4,520, which previously restricted the index’s gains. 

However, clearing this obstacle would pave the way for the S&P 500 to easily reclaim its intraday 2023 high and go for the all-time intraday high of 4,818. 

“The setup is there to make a run at that peak. There’s too much momentum, too much fear of missing out.”

– Freedom Capital Markets’ chief global strategist Jay Woods said.

S&P 500 Near-Term Outlook

The fact that the market hasn’t witnessed a sell-off after recent gains indicates that optimism among investors to continue buying stocks persists. 

The near-term outlook for the S&P 500 to continue its upward trajectory depends on a combination of factors. The latest batch of data showed that the US economy is finally slowing down, pushing Treasury yields down from their multi-year highs. However, analysts said yields must remain where they are or retreat further for the index to continue its uptrend.

The landscape has become more favorable for stocks and other risk assets as consumer price index (CPI) and jobless claims reports showed that interest rates are restricting the growth of the US economy. This, in turn, led to growing convictions that the Federal Reserve would impose no additional rate hikes, bringing a fresh wave of optimism into the markets.

Additionally, US stocks should receive a seasonality boost, too, with the market averaging 1.5% in December since 1950. 

Where do you think the S&P 500 index will stand at the end of 2024? Let us know in the comments below. 

About the author

Tim Fries is the cofounder of The Tokenist. He has a B. Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Michigan, and an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Tim served as a Senior Associate on the investment team at RW Baird’s US Private Equity division, and is also the co-founder of Protective Technologies Capital, an investment firm specializing in sensing, protection and control solutions.